Through the Looking Glass

Financial Express Foreign investors with long-term commitments to Indian infrastructure need the ability to hedge their currency exposure in India. The exposure can typically last for multiple decades, especially in the context of infrastructure. The recently concluded Virtual Global Investor Conference saw large global investors recommitting to their interest in investing in India for the long-term. For investors, the return they seek is dependent on the performance of underlying investment and the exchange rate of the Indian rupee. Foreign investors with long-term commitments to Indian infrastructure need the ability to hedge their currency exposure in India. The exposure can typically last for multiple decades, especially in the context of infrastructure. While, over the long-run, the Indian rupee has depreciated in small single-digit percentages (2.3% pa over the last two decades), there are years when the exchange rate has moved significantly causing a large variability in returns...

  What the numbers say—how men and women spend their day differently; and how much bijli, sadak, paani can improve productivity Here’s a question that has been of interest to me: in a country of 1.4 billion people, if only approximately 400 million are in the workforce, what is it that the remaining billion people do? We now have some answers. Time Use Survey 2019, compiled and released by the Ministry of Statistics and Planning Implementation (MOSPI) reveals interesting data about the pattern of time use by Indians. This is how the day of an “average” Indian goes. (Yes, there is no average Indian person – this is the average of the times spent across men and women in rural and urban India.) Out of the 24 hours in a day, almost exactly half is spent in “self-care and maintenance” – this leaves only 12 hours, which is typically used for these five activities: employment and related activities (2.7 hours), unpaid domestic services for household members (2.2 hours), culture, l...

Financial Express As States issue more debt, finding the investors who will subscribe to the issue will require expanding the current pool of investors and making the investment more lucrative While there have been many deliberations in these pages on the growing amount of debt that the various tiers of the government (Centre and States) will have to raise, little discussion has gone into who they will raise the funds from. It is left to the all-encompassing term: ‘market borrowing’. We deep-dive to see who constitutes this market and what policy implications arise.  Every September, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) releases a treasure trove of data: Handbook of Statistics on the Indian Economy. While there are many aspects of interest in this data release, we will specifically focus on tables 113 and 114. The former details the “Combined Liabilities of Central and State Governments” and the latter, “Ownership of Central and State Government Securities”. These annual data releases o...

Financial Express India can learn a lot from its experience in managing cash – getting a billion people what they need can be planned effectively A vaccine for Covid-19 is expected to come sometime over the next few months – hopefully in this year. Once a vaccine is available, getting it to India’s billion plus people is a logistical challenge with many moral and ethical questions attached. How should India plan for the vaccination program?  Before we go there, let us recognize that a few very important questions still remain to be answered. What shape and form the vaccine will be remains to be seen: it is expected that it will be intravenous and hence may require skilled or trained practitioners to administer. It is also not clear whether there will be only one vaccine or many competing ones, and how effective each might be. All of this will feed into the number of doses that might be required – whether a single shot would do or multiple jabs may be required. Hopefully, India will...

Financial Express Many of the networks of value could start to become ‘utilities’ as they become more embedded in everyday lives In the previous article , we introduced the idea of the D-sector. The three traditional sectors have a well-defined, or largely settled, understanding of the many elements that build them: (1) what resources are required, (2) employment and its regulations, (3) the path to skills, (4) how they are priced and valued, (5) taxation policies, and (6) their impact on society. We detail these below. Defining the D-sector Resources required : Five elements are required to build a sturdy ‘digital cocoon’: the ability to (1) get on a network, (2) communicate and connect, (3) add value, (4) make and receive payments and (5) access assets and liabilities. We detailed these in the earlier article. There is a role for both the public and the private sector in creating the networks. Many networks that help create value in the fourth sector are largely private today: th...

Financial Express   The new normal after Covid-19 requires a re-imagining of macroeconomics: we need to start defining the contours of, and measuring, the fourth sector. (First of a two-part article) “There are three estates in Parliament but in the Reporters' Gallery yonder there sits a Fourth Estate more important far than they all. It is not a figure of speech or witty saying, it is a literal fact, very momentous to us in these times.” Edmund Burke's quote highlighted the rising of the Fourth Estate as press and media became an important pillar of the society. A similar momentous time is upon us again, courtesy the pandemic, as we recognize what brings income and wealth to the society. In an earlier article , “ Getting India digitally ready: COVID-19 pandemic highlights urgent need to build digital cocoons for the whole population ” (May 15, 2020, The Financial Express), we had looked at the importance of and need to build “digital cocoons” for a large segment of India’s p...

Notes from a Live Webinar co-hosted by Axis Bank and agribazaar The panel was represented by senior government officials, investors, developmental agencies, agri-industrialists and a banker. The reforms undertaken by the Government were outlined and explained by the four Secretaries to the Government of India. These reforms have been variously called the "watershed moment", "1991 moment", and the "unshackling" of Indian agriculture, especially since they converted the Covid-19 crisis into a massive opportunity. A good start with many reforms With almost half a billion people associated directly or indirectly with Indian agriculture, any change here impacts incomes, jobs, social status, and prosperity for them. These changes fit in well with the Government's commitment to double farmers' incomes. The three big changes that have taken place are: (1) abolition of the monopoly of local mandi, or agriculture yard, where the farmer was required to ...

Financial Express Shape of economic recovery will determine employment, debt and exchange rates The immediate fiscal deficit dynamics and growth outcomes for India post Covid-19 lockdown have been the subject of intense analysis and discussion. The human crisis of lives and livelihood did demand both an immediate and urgent response. With the lockdown now opening and economic activity picking up, it is important to look beyond FY21 to see how India could fare in the first half of the next decade. Discussions have focussed on whether the economic recovery will be L, U, V, W, or a swoosh, a la the logo of a famous sports brand. These descriptors refer to the shape of the chart when plotting real GDP (on y-axis) over time (on x-axis). The GDP in FY20 is estimated to be Rs 204 trillion (Rs 204 lakh crore) and if it had continued to grow at 8% in real terms, GDP would have reached Rs 300 trillion by FY25. Depending on the inflation trajectory, the nominal number would have been highe...

Financial Express Development and Progress go hand-in-hand; getting on and remaining on the ladders key to economic growth for individuals and nations As India changed and economically progressed, it brought hope. There was indeed a pathway out of the poverty that the slow growth of the many decades had foisted upon the society. There was now a way to get out of ration queues to become tax-payers – from being dependent on the State to giving back to the country. A sliver of the population would jump right off the subsistence farms and move to the cities. The pathway was to get into one the burgeoning services sectors: get into IT to bring in the moolah or become an air-hostess to serve the customer flying in and out of the country; sell the young generation a home, or the loan and insurance on it. One needs to have found the right steps on the Ladder of Development to eventually get on the Ladder of Progress. The Ladder of Development The ladder of development is basically a...

Budget 2020 cares for people’s economic aspirations, says Axis Bank’s Akhilesh Tilotia Financial Express India’s response to its dilemma will determine whether budgets of the next decade will have larger incomes to tax or larger taxes on incomes. This Budget Speech of the finance minister was one of the longest in recent history. Her previous Budget speech in July last year was around 11,000 words. This one was more than 13,000. Part A of the speech went from 8,000 words to 9,000. Part B went from 3,000 to 4,000. This depicts the relative importance attributed to the plans and schemes of the government and changing tax structures. The FM’s pictorial depiction of the bouquet of government schemes held by two caring hands of governance and financial sector reinforces the work required in building and unclogging the plumbing of the BFSI sector. There are many proposals that build on the agenda of liberalisation and privatisation such as the proposed Initial Public Offering (IP...

India may end up implicitly choosing a stance of preferring capital flows over current account flows, if it sets a GDP target in a foreign currency Financial Express A currency serves two purposes: medium of exchange and store of value. We have explored this idea in these pages in a different context earlier when we looked at the relationship between legacy finance firms and fintech companies. Today, we explore the implication of this definition and purpose of a currency in the context of a country’s financial relationships with other countries. For a country, its relationship with the world flows through two accounts: capital account and current account. For sake of simplicity, capital account refers to all the monies transferred on account of buying or selling of assets like equity, debt, property, etc, and current account includes all the trade in goods and services including investment incomes and remittances. It can readily be seen that when a country engages with the world...

As the Centre and States try to find GST compensation cess monies, it is time to look beyond the present, to see how the future could unfold for State finances Financial Express The financial relationship between states and the Centre has been in news recently. The Fifteenth Finance Commission submitted its report to the president; there have been some delays in payment of the GST compensation cess, and there were some discussions on whether the Centre will honour its commitment of assuring a 14% revenue growth in the agreed-upon transition period. Constitutionally, Centre-State fiscal relations come up for review quinquennially (once every five years). States have ceded significant taxing powers to the Centre via GST. Earlier, the states had their own tax bases and could manage revenues by juggling taxation policies. This led to a large number of state-specific tax rates, a lack of uniformity in the tax structure in the country, and sometimes, a race to very low-tax regimes to...

The evolution of India’s tax-to-GDP ratio will require significant political and social consensus—a strategic modelling and planning of tax POLICIES is required Financial Express India’s tax-to-GDP ratio at the government level has hovered around 18-19% of GDP over the last few years (between FY17 and FY20E). Coupled with disinvestments, dividends, and other receipts, the central government mops up another 5-6% of GDP, taking the total revenues of the government to about a quarter of GDP. The government is committed to spend, on account of both revenue and capital expenditure, 29-30% of the country’s GDP, leaving it with a fiscal deficit in the 4-6% range. The revenue percentages for the government have remained reasonably sticky, and the expenditure items are also committed. As India works its way towards a $5 trillion economy, or double its current size, in the next few years, it is worth considering what the fiscal landscape could look like. As Esteban Ortiz-Ospina and Max R...