Through the Looking Glass

Notes from a Live Webinar co-hosted by Axis Bank and agribazaar The panel was represented by senior government officials, investors, developmental agencies, agri-industrialists and a banker. The reforms undertaken by the Government were outlined and explained by the four Secretaries to the Government of India. These reforms have been variously called the "watershed moment", "1991 moment", and the "unshackling" of Indian agriculture, especially since they converted the Covid-19 crisis into a massive opportunity. A good start with many reforms With almost half a billion people associated directly or indirectly with Indian agriculture, any change here impacts incomes, jobs, social status, and prosperity for them. These changes fit in well with the Government's commitment to double farmers' incomes. The three big changes that have taken place are: (1) abolition of the monopoly of local mandi, or agriculture yard, where the farmer was required to ...

Financial Express Shape of economic recovery will determine employment, debt and exchange rates The immediate fiscal deficit dynamics and growth outcomes for India post Covid-19 lockdown have been the subject of intense analysis and discussion. The human crisis of lives and livelihood did demand both an immediate and urgent response. With the lockdown now opening and economic activity picking up, it is important to look beyond FY21 to see how India could fare in the first half of the next decade. Discussions have focussed on whether the economic recovery will be L, U, V, W, or a swoosh, a la the logo of a famous sports brand. These descriptors refer to the shape of the chart when plotting real GDP (on y-axis) over time (on x-axis). The GDP in FY20 is estimated to be Rs 204 trillion (Rs 204 lakh crore) and if it had continued to grow at 8% in real terms, GDP would have reached Rs 300 trillion by FY25. Depending on the inflation trajectory, the nominal number would have been highe...

Financial Express Covid-19 highlights the importance of and urgent need to build ‘digital cocoons’ for the whole population The Covid-19 series of lock-downs have brought very different experiences for varied segments of society: the contrast cannot be starker than the social media posts of fancy meals at home compared to the long walks back to hometowns. What explains the difference? Those who have been able to weave a ‘digital cocoon’ have done comparatively better than the real-world migrants. A migrant moves location for economic activity, whether a job, business or studies. In case of a real-world migrant, her presence at the site of the economic activity is sine qua non – there is simply no way that the activity can be performed without the person being there. In the case of a ‘digital migrant’, however, a virtual presence suffices. Juxtapose the move of migrants to their hometowns with the initiatives that many companies are now running to empower their employees to ‘wor...

Financial Express COVID-19 could change entire industry ecosystems—what makes planning challenging is that it is not clear how permanent and deep the changes will be By now you are deep in your business continuity planning (BCP)—if your organisation had planned it, good; if not, you have learnt its importance the hard way. The COVID-19 related disruption is such a seminal event in our generation that none of us are likely to forget the lessons from this pandemic. From now on, there will be few organisations to not have a BCP: building a BCP will prepare you for any such event which surprises you. What organisations now need is a Beyond COVID-19 Plan (BCP), which pools in the learning from this event to make the business go faster, higher and stronger. The new BCP requires a look at both your internal resilience and external reality. Be brutal in assessing what has changed and how permanent the change is expected to be. The change will be in employees, their behaviours and expect...

Financial Express Building liquidity infrastructure and solution and protecting incomes required in the short-term; rebuilding trust in the long-term We looked at some of the possible impacts of social distancing in the previous article . As various supply chains get disrupted due to sudden convulsions of demand and supply, the impact will be as much social as economic. The public health systems across the world are gearing up to cope with the challenges of the virus. We detail some of the steps that policy makers, industries and companies can take to tackle the uncertainties arising from this unprecedented way of living. The fundamental premise of social distancing is that individuals keep distance from one another. The premise of human economic activity in the modern world is based on the division of labour which intricately links up the economy to social interactions. Any lack of social interaction can create significant break-ups in the economic links. This flows through not...

Financial Express What the virus spread has revealed is that it is difficult to predict where it might emerge next and with what ferocity What has surprised the world about the new Coronavirus, Covid-19, is how quickly it engulfed the globe and how the unlikeliest of places emerged as hotspots for the epidemic. Starting in a deep interior region of China, it quickly spread across the world and became an epidemic in places that one would not have imagined have a link with the original location. The globalized world of air travel and deep, cross-linked supply chains meant that the virus was able to quickly spread out. It took root in a few places (even as it was quickly contained in Singapore) finding fertile ground in Iran and Italy. The jury is out on whether this can be safely contained in other places where the outbreak is starting to be reported like the USA, Europe, the UK, India, and other countries. What the virus spread has revealed is that it is difficult to predict wher...

Financial Express Development and Progress go hand-in-hand; getting on and remaining on the ladders key to economic growth for individuals and nations As India changed and economically progressed, it brought hope. There was indeed a pathway out of the poverty that the slow growth of the many decades had foisted upon the society. There was now a way to get out of ration queues to become tax-payers – from being dependent on the State to giving back to the country. A sliver of the population would jump right off the subsistence farms and move to the cities. The pathway was to get into one the burgeoning services sectors: get into IT to bring in the moolah or become an air-hostess to serve the customer flying in and out of the country; sell the young generation a home, or the loan and insurance on it. One needs to have found the right steps on the Ladder of Development to eventually get on the Ladder of Progress. The Ladder of Development The ladder of development is basically a...