Through the Looking Glass

The evolution of India’s tax-to-GDP ratio will require significant political and social consensus—a strategic modelling and planning of tax POLICIES is required Financial Express India’s tax-to-GDP ratio at the government level has hovered around 18-19% of GDP over the last few years (between FY17 and FY20E). Coupled with disinvestments, dividends, and other receipts, the central government mops up another 5-6% of GDP, taking the total revenues of the government to about a quarter of GDP. The government is committed to spend, on account of both revenue and capital expenditure, 29-30% of the country’s GDP, leaving it with a fiscal deficit in the 4-6% range. The revenue percentages for the government have remained reasonably sticky, and the expenditure items are also committed. As India works its way towards a $5 trillion economy, or double its current size, in the next few years, it is worth considering what the fiscal landscape could look like. As Esteban Ortiz-Ospina and Max R...

Financial Express The product design strategy of a financial service firm revolves around ‘maturity transformation’, ‘liquidity transformation’ or ‘risk transformation’. There is excitement about fintech eating traditional finance. The incumbents are institutions with legacy systems and older-generation leadership while the new-age challengers are building models on open APIs and have modular, scalable platforms. In the new world, customer engagement is expected to hold the audience captive—this is expected to create a strong distribution pipeline via which products of increasing complexity can be sold. A publication by the Boston Consulting Group earlier this July, “Banks Brace for a New Wave of Digital Disruption” talks about the need for the banks “to redefine themselves and change how they operate”. However, it adds an important caveat: “given the fundamental strength of many leading multinational banks, banking’s inherently high barriers to entry, and the extent of the indu...

Financial Express A house is not merely a place to live and build a life, it is also one of the most significant assets of the family. An investment in a house roots a family to a location, giving them a significant stake in the development of the local area. Housing is a fundamental requirement of human existence. The requirement of shelter is so basic that in common parlance in India, it is clubbed together with food and clothing as the troika of basic human needs of roti, kapda, and makaan. It is no wonder that housing is a key social demand, and a priority area for governments, both at the Centre and the states. Housing as a socio-economic construct The development of housing is a function of the economic reality of a location and its era. India has seen, and will continue to see, significant urbanisation. Where people choose to live is a complex optimisation of how close houses are to their places of economic activity (work, business catchment area, etc), how conveniently...

Financial Express This requires confidence, coordination and capital; resolution can't be imposed using policy actions When commemorating anniversaries, we tend to reserve our special attention for round-number, decadal years. Last year, around this time, the world—and India—remembered and recounted its lessons from the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) that reverberated across the globe in September 2008. Since it is the nature of history to repeat, but not to rhyme, decadal recounting of experiences and learnings serve as good markers, but may not be timed to perfection. The challenges in the local banking and non-banking finance companies 11 years post the GFC require us to take a relook at the learnings, especially, on the aspects that eventually led to the calming of the markets. India is nowhere near the situation that the world witnessed 11 years ago—however, GFC offers helpful pointers on how to navigate the sometimes choppy waters. The business of finance is built on t...

Financial Express The onus falls on business to continue to engender society’s and regulators’ trust in the usefulness of technology. New technologies bring with them challenges of regulation. The key challenges facing regulators in the context of drones are privacy, safety and security. Drones have captured headlines this week. The spectacular drone attack on Saudi Arabian oil facilities knocked out ~5% of daily oil supply. The Maharashtra government announced that it signed up with a global private firm to “use a logistics network of autonomous delivery drones to help transform emergency medicine and critical care”. The Economist, on its latest cover, highlighted that ‘flying taxis take off’ even as earlier this year, the Gatwick airport closed for a day and a half over “drone sighting”. Drones, or unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) or remotely piloted aircraft systems (RPAS), have become common in a wide variety of more beneficial, mundane and practical applications in agricultu...

The Financial Express Large digital databases like the GST Network can give granular insight, create predictive models; this can lead to more grounded interventions A lot has been said about the current economic slowdown. Econometricians have opined on whether the fall in growth rate is structural or cyclical; economists have wondered whether the response has to be from the supply side or whether demand needs a boost; politicians have traded barbs on whether the issue is the mismanagement of the local economy or the impact of the global trade wars and suchlike; industry and stock market participants have loudly called for succour, fiscal prudence be damned, as their profits and positions suffer even as bureaucrats and government think-tanks continue to talk of India becoming a $5 trillion economy. Since the macro-economy affects all participants, it is natural for all of them to have an opinion and voice it out clearly. As they perceive the current slowdown from their own vanta...

The Financial Express From purely a financial perspective of current account deficit, the distinction between goods and services does not matter The exports performance of Vietnam continues to be contrasted with that of India: the most recent example being the editorial in this newspaper, “Can India learn from Vietnam to manage export-led growth?”. The article, similar to other analyses on this topic, focusses on the significant ramp-up in the exports of Vietnam, especially over the last decade or so. With Indian merchandise exports remaining range-bound over the last few years in the $300-330 billion annual range and Vietnamese exports having risen from $150 billion in FY14 to $244 billion in FY18, there is hand-wringing for India having missed a trick. It is important to acknowledge the growth of exports in Vietnam but before we jump to conclusions and recommendations for India, we need to explore this growth more deeply so that we can draw the right lessons. Exports is one p...